Seasonality and Market Trends

Seasonality and Market Trends

Seasonality and market trends make it difficult to identify base demand for use in your forecasting models. Forecasting sales is not enough; instead, you must forecast on demand after performing seasonal and trend analysis to identify sales trends. canadian pharmacy viagra with prescription

Are my sales spikes a result of seasonality or do they indicate a change in the underlying market trend?

iKIS Seasonality and Market Trend Analysis

Demand Forecasting

Data Profits iKIS solution determines if your sales spikes are a result of seasonality, a market trend, or an event. While events and ads affect sales, there is additional analysis iKIS runs to determine the impacts of seasonality and market trends within those sales. We perform the following analysis across every product/location:

  • Deseasonalize demand sales
  • Calculate a market trend
  • Calculate a base forecast value
  • Reapply the calculated seasonal index

The iKIS Seasonality and Market trend wizard calculates the index or trend of product sales and applies it to the base demand forecast, providing the user with a true forecast over time.

What is the difference between seasonality, market trend, and ad (event)?

Seasonality

Sales that repeat based on time are seasonal, whether sales peaks repeat once a year, or once a month, if the pattern repeats over time it is seasonal.

Market Trend

A market trend is something that is occurring in the market today and doesn’t cycle based on a calendar. A market trend will also show up at your competition. A popular video game is released and sales spike for you and your competition.

Ad or Event

Sales that occur and are connected to your sales ad or event (competition has a sale, BOGO, special price this week, etc.). These user-entered events can be one-time or generally recurring.

Putting it Together

A hit artist releases a new CD in April, the immediate rise in sales would be a market trend. The same hit artist releases a holiday CD in December, the resulting sales will be seasonal and potentially have a market trend, if sales spike suddenly due to popularity of the artist.

Seasonality

Seasonal demand has a pattern that repeats on a time schedule. Some iKIS features for Seasonal management include:

  • System Generated
  • Manual creation
  • Create from Excel
  • Mass Maintenance

Market Trend

Market trend demand has an impact but does not repeat based on a schedule. Some iKIS features for Market Trend management include:

  • System Generated
  • Manual trend override
  • Graphical display
  • Automation tools

Ad or Event

Ad and Event demand is generated above or below the base sales demand due to an event. Some iKIS features for Ad or Event sales include:

  • Measure Consumer Response
  • Include/ Exclude in Forecast
  • Can include seasonality and/or market trend
  • Save and re-run ad